Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Owls MEM @ FAU

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

7-7  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 1:00 PM ET
Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

OWLSFAU

10-6  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
TIGERS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 OwlsFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

38.2%

Owls Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

MEM By 1-7 points

21.6%

MEM By 8-14 points

10.7%

FAU By 1-7 points

27.2%

FAU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
78
MEMPHIS
81
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
72
MEMPHIS
75
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 FAU @ MEM 65 - 92
Jan 11, 2026 MEM @ FAU 78 - 89
Feb 23, 2025 FAU @ MEM 65 - 84
Jan 2, 2025 MEM @ FAU 90 - 62
Mar 9, 2024 MEM @ FAU 84 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.2% more
Florida Atlantic: 5.0 vs Memphis: 4.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 42.7 vs Memphis: 38.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Florida Atlantic: 73.3% vs Memphis: 65.4%
Steals (L5) +39.3% more
Memphis: 11.3 vs Florida Atlantic: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 78.0 78
FAU Score 81.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 30.9 29.0 / 43.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.3 15.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.4 9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 45.3 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 65.4 69.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 38.8 46.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.9 / 11.3 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 16.8 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
FAU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
FAU Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
MEM
FAU
MEM
ML
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
ATS
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 5 hours, 59 minutes ago
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day ago
ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips Shrugs Off Realignment Buzz, Decla…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago
Memphis Basketball's Non-Conference Slate Ranked by Bart Torvik:…
yahoo 1 week, 2 days ago