ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
12-3 | Road
75
IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
12-3 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
HAWKEYES
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
HAWKEYES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ILL By 1-7 points
16.9%
ILL By 8-14 points
26.2%
IOWA By 1-7 points
5.8%
IOWA By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
62
ILLINOIS
Iowa
48
IOWA
Simulated Score
Illinois
72
ILLINOIS
Iowa
78
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawkeyes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Hawkeyes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
IOWA @ ILL
59 - 71
Jan 11, 2026
ILL @ IOWA
75 - 69
Mar 13, 2025
IOWA @ ILL
94 - 106
Feb 25, 2025
IOWA @ ILL
61 - 81
Mar 10, 2024
ILL @ IOWA
73 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.4% more
Illinois: 5.7
vs
Iowa: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+21.5% more
Illinois: 43.8
vs
Iowa: 34.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Illinois: 83.1%
vs
Iowa: 78.9%
Steals (L5)
+181.4% more
Iowa: 7.9
vs
Illinois: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
62.0
75
IOWA Score
48.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 33.9
31.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.8 / 14.5
19.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.7
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 45.3
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 83.1
100.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 43.8
31.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.9 / 2.8
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.4
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
IOWA
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
IOWA
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
ILL
IOWA
ILL
ML
59%
22-15
65%
24-13
78%
28-8
57%
20-15
ATS
76%
28-9
70%
26-11
78%
28-8
57%
20-15
TTL
57%
21-16
57%
21-16
100%
36-0
100%
35-0
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