Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Bearkats LIB @ SHSU

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

12-3  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 3:30 PM ET
Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

9-6  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
BEARKATS
100%
FLAMES --
BEARKATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Liberty)
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 BearkatsSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

95.5%

Bearkats Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIB -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

LIB By 1-7 points

12.2%

LIB By 8-14 points

23.0%

SHSU By 1-7 points

3.3%

SHSU By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
83
LIBERTY
66
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
68
LIBERTY
72
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearkats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flames (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bearkats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 SHSU @ LIB 72 - 79
Jan 10, 2026 LIB @ SHSU 82 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 SHSU @ LIB 61 - 64
Jan 9, 2025 LIB @ SHSU 76 - 68
Feb 17, 2024 LIB @ SHSU 73 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.2% more
Liberty: 4.5 vs Sam Houston: 2.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Liberty: 47.7% vs Sam Houston: 44.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Liberty: 37.9% vs Sam Houston: 36.4%
Turnovers (L5) +31.4% more
Sam Houston: 11.0 vs Liberty: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 83.0 82
SHSU Score 66.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 37.9 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.6 / 15.4 10.0 / 22.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.5 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 47.7 44.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 73.9 79.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 44.5 / 34.9 37.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.8 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 8.4 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
SHSU
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
LIB
SHSU
LIB
ML
55% 18-15
50% 17-17
74% 23-8
53% 18-16
ATS
64% 21-12
62% 21-13
74% 23-8
53% 18-16
TTL
48% 16-17
41% 14-20
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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