PRESBYTERIAN
BLUE HOSEPRES
8-9 | Road
70
LONGWOOD
LANCERSLONG
9-9 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE HOSE
100%
LANCERS
0%
BLUE HOSE
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Longwood)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LONG -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)
PRES By 1-7 points
13.7%
PRES By 8-14 points
4.8%
LONG By 1-7 points
25.3%
LONG By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Presbyterian
85
PRESBYTERIAN
Longwood
93
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
Presbyterian
68
PRESBYTERIAN
Longwood
72
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lancers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lancers (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.0
Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u140.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
LONG @ PRES
65 - 72
Jan 10, 2026
PRES @ LONG
70 - 77
Feb 15, 2025
PRES @ LONG
77 - 68
Jan 2, 2025
LONG @ PRES
60 - 68
Feb 17, 2024
LONG @ PRES
81 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.0% more
Longwood: 7.6
vs
Presbyterian: 5.5
Turnovers (L5)
+18.4% more
Longwood: 13.2
vs
Presbyterian: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Longwood: 69.3%
vs
Presbyterian: 64.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PRES Score
85.0
70
LONG Score
93.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 31.1
47.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.6 / 12.8
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.8
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 46.3
48.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
69.3 / 64.3
86.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 34.8
34.0 / 26.0
Steals
7.6 / 5.5
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 11.2
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRES
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: +0.7
LONG
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRES
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: +0.7
LONG
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PRES
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
PRES
LONG
PRES
ML
65%
20-11
69%
22-10
68%
21-10
80%
24-6
ATS
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
80%
24-6
TTL
65%
20-11
59%
19-13
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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