UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
7-10 | Road
91
RADFORD
HIGHLANDERSRAD
9-8 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
RADFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Radford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RAD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RAD)
UNCA By 1-7 points
21.6%
UNCA By 8-14 points
10.7%
RAD By 1-7 points
27.2%
RAD By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Asheville
89
UNC ASHEVILLE
Radford
92
RADFORD
Simulated Score
UNC Asheville
70
UNC ASHEVILLE
Radford
73
RADFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Highlanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders (+5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Highlanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.0
Win
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim
u152.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
RAD @ UNCA
73 - 74
Jan 10, 2026
UNCA @ RAD
91 - 72
Feb 20, 2025
UNCA @ RAD
53 - 77
Jan 29, 2025
RAD @ UNCA
65 - 72
Mar 2, 2024
UNCA @ RAD
71 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.1% more
Radford: 4.7
vs
UNC Asheville: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+38.9% more
Radford: 14.4
vs
UNC Asheville: 10.3
Steals (L5)
+37.7% more
Radford: 7.1
vs
UNC Asheville: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.5%
Radford: 77.8%
vs
UNC Asheville: 65.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score
89.0
91
RAD Score
92.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 34.9
12.0 / 44.0
Assists
14.4 / 10.3
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.7 / 3.3
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 43.4
39.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 65.3
72.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 35.8
35.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.1 / 5.2
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.1
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
RAD
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
RAD
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
RAD
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RAD
UNCA
RAD
UNCA
ML
77%
23-7
53%
16-14
76%
22-7
63%
19-11
ATS
63%
19-11
57%
17-13
77%
23-7
63%
19-11
TTL
67%
20-10
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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