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WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

8-9  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 5:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

15-2  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
GAELS
0%
COUGARS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Saint Mary's)
CougarsWSU (-3.5) 0 GaelsSMC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

0.0%

Gaels Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

WSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

WSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

SMC By 1-7 points

0.3%

SMC By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
60
WASHINGTON STATE
95
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
WASHINGTON STATE
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gaels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gaels (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 SMC @ WSU 83 - 67
Jan 10, 2026 WSU @ SMC 82 - 88
Feb 15, 2025 WSU @ SMC 56 - 77
Jan 25, 2025 SMC @ WSU 80 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +50.6% more
Saint Mary's: 17.7 vs Washington State: 11.8
Steals (L5) +25.4% more
Saint Mary's: 5.2 vs Washington State: 4.1
Blocks (L5) +19.8% more
Saint Mary's: 4.2 vs Washington State: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
Saint Mary's: 82.9% vs Washington State: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 60.0 82
SMC Score 95.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 34.6 47.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.7 / 11.8 19.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.5 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 45.1 48.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 82.9 / 73.3 100.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 39.9 29.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.2 / 4.1 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 13.6 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
WSU
SMC
WSU
ML
56% 18-14
78% 25-7
82% 23-5
69% 20-9
ATS
62% 20-12
78% 25-7
83% 24-5
69% 20-9
TTL
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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