CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-9 | Road
75
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
5-11 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
BEACH
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Long Beach State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
CSUB By 1-7 points
12.2%
CSUB By 8-14 points
4.0%
LBSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
LBSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
55
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Long Beach State
64
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
70
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Long Beach State
75
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beach
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beach (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
LBSU @ CSUB
88 - 87
Jan 10, 2026
CSUB @ LBSU
75 - 81
Feb 27, 2025
CSUB @ LBSU
88 - 87
Jan 4, 2025
LBSU @ CSUB
65 - 80
Feb 22, 2024
CSUB @ LBSU
66 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+46.2% more
Long Beach State: 15.0
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Long Beach State: 47.9%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 41.4%
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.7
vs
Long Beach State: 7.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.0% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 38.4
vs
Long Beach State: 34.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
55.0
75
LBSU Score
64.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 37.6
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
15.0 / 10.3
18.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.9
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 41.4
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 75.2
76.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 38.4
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.7
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 12.6
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
LBSU
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
CSUB
LBSU
CSUB
ML
55%
17-14
55%
17-14
65%
20-11
71%
22-9
ATS
68%
21-10
61%
19-12
65%
20-11
71%
22-9
TTL
61%
19-12
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
