LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
6-10 | Road
82
LINDENWOOD
LIONSLIN
10-6 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
LIONS
100%
TROJANS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)
LR By 1-7 points
26.8%
LR By 8-14 points
18.6%
LIN By 1-7 points
23.0%
LIN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
77
LITTLE ROCK
Lindenwood
75
LINDENWOOD
Simulated Score
Little Rock
68
LITTLE ROCK
Lindenwood
72
LINDENWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
LR @ LIN
62 - 72
Feb 5, 2026
LIN @ LR
79 - 74
Jan 10, 2026
LR @ LIN
82 - 74
Feb 20, 2025
LIN @ LR
93 - 92
Jan 25, 2025
LR @ LIN
78 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.2% more
Little Rock: 9.4
vs
Lindenwood: 7.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Little Rock: 33.2%
vs
Lindenwood: 31.6%
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
Lindenwood: 4.1
vs
Little Rock: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.2% more
Lindenwood: 39.6
vs
Little Rock: 34.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
77.0
82
LIN Score
75.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 33.2
28.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.3 / 14.2
17.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.1
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 44.8
49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 66.9
79.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.6 / 34.7
26.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.7 / 9.4
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.5
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
LIN
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
LIN
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIN
LR
LIN
LR
ML
47%
15-17
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
68%
17-8
ATS
34%
11-21
45%
14-17
61%
19-12
68%
17-8
TTL
53%
17-15
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
25-0
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