Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Indiana MIA @ IU

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

13-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

15-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Mitch McCarthy

#44 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Mitch McCarthy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
100%
📊
INDIANA
0%
MIAMI --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Indiana)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 IndianaIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

30.9%

Indiana Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

9.6%

IU By 1-6 points

16.5%

IU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MIAMI
31
INDIANA
Simulated Score
30
MIAMI
20
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Miami (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MIA @ IU 21 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Indiana: 191.3 vs Miami: 151.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Indiana: 423.0 vs Miami: 383.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
Miami: 0.9 vs Indiana: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 24.0 21
IU Score 31.0 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
IU
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
MIA
IU
MIA
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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