TROY
TROJANSTROY
10-6 | Road
90
LOUISIANA
RAGIN' CAJUNSUL
4-13 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
TROJANS
--
RAGIN' CAJUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
TROY By 1-7 points
1.4%
TROY By 8-14 points
5.8%
UL By 1-7 points
0.1%
UL By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
95
TROY
Louisiana
66
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
Troy
73
TROY
Louisiana
78
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ragin' Cajuns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trojans (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Ragin' Cajuns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o134.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
UL @ TROY
59 - 78
Jan 10, 2026
TROY @ UL
90 - 70
Feb 20, 2025
UL @ TROY
72 - 69
Feb 12, 2025
TROY @ UL
74 - 56
Feb 28, 2024
TROY @ UL
87 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.8% more
Troy: 9.0
vs
Louisiana: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+26.5% more
Troy: 4.6
vs
Louisiana: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+14.8% more
Troy: 16.1
vs
Louisiana: 13.7
Rebounding (L5)
+10.1% more
Troy: 36.2
vs
Louisiana: 32.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
95.0
90
UL Score
66.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 37.1
40.0 / 59.0
Assists
13.7 / 16.1
11.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.6
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 43.3
46.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
64.9 / 64.7
77.0 / 45.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 36.2
19.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.1 / 9.0
5.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.8
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
UL
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.0
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
UL
14-18-1
(43.8%)
Margin: -7.0
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
TROY
UL
TROY
ML
66%
21-11
59%
20-14
63%
19-11
61%
20-13
ATS
66%
21-11
65%
22-12
63%
19-11
61%
20-13
TTL
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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