Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Roos UND @ KC

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

8-11  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Swinney Center
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROOSKC

4-13  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
ROOS
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
ROOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas City)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 RoosKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

24.2%

Roos Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

UND By 1-7 points

15.3%

UND By 8-14 points

5.8%

KC By 1-7 points

26.2%

KC By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NORTH DAKOTA
74
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
71
NORTH DAKOTA
74
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Roos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Roos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Roos (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Roos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 KC @ UND 70 - 85
Jan 10, 2026 UND @ KC 81 - 79
Feb 8, 2025 UND @ KC 69 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 KC @ UND 72 - 76
Feb 10, 2024 KC @ UND 65 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.7% more
Kansas City: 13.3 vs North Dakota: 9.6
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
Kansas City: 13.5 vs North Dakota: 11.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Kansas City: 44.7% vs North Dakota: 41.9%
Blocks (L5) +24.3% more
North Dakota: 2.7 vs Kansas City: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 67.0 81
KC Score 74.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 34.0 63.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.5 / 11.5 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.7 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 41.9 54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 75.2 93.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 34.1 35.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.4 / 8.0 1.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 9.6 18.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
KC
4-27-0 (12.9%)
Margin: -14.5 ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
KC
5-23-0 (17.9%)
Margin: -14.5 ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
KC
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
UND
KC
UND
ML
63% 19-11
44% 15-19
67% 20-10
50% 17-17
ATS
67% 20-10
50% 17-17
67% 20-10
50% 17-17
TTL
70% 21-9
65% 22-12
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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