Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thundering Herd @ Panthers MRSH @ GAST

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

11-5  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
GSU Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

5-12  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
THUNDERING HERD --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Georgia State)
Thundering HerdMRSH (-3.5) 0 PanthersGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thundering Herd Cover

0.5%

Panthers Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GAST -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

MRSH By 1-7 points

0.4%

MRSH By 8-14 points

0.0%

GAST By 1-7 points

2.7%

GAST By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
60
MARSHALL
86
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
72
MARSHALL
78
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 MRSH @ GAST 73 - 81
Dec 31, 2025 GAST @ MRSH 80 - 84
Mar 7, 2025 GAST @ MRSH 76 - 79
Jan 30, 2025 GAST @ MRSH 85 - 81
Jan 23, 2025 MRSH @ GAST 92 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Georgia State: 78.7% vs Marshall: 72.2%
Blocks (L5) +36.8% more
Marshall: 5.0 vs Georgia State: 3.2
Assists (L5) +20.5% more
Marshall: 15.6 vs Georgia State: 12.4
Turnovers (L5) +8.0% more
Marshall: 9.6 vs Georgia State: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 60.0 73
GAST Score 86.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 36.1 25.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.4 / 15.6 9.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 5.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 44.2 39.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 72.2 85.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 37.2 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.3 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 9.6 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
GAST Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
MRSH
GAST
MRSH
ML
56% 18-14
70% 21-9
71% 22-9
62% 18-11
ATS
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
71% 22-9
62% 18-11
TTL
59% 19-13
50% 15-15
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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