Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Friars @ Musketeers PROV @ XAV

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

8-7  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

9-7  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
0%
📊
MUSKETEERS
100%
FRIARS --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Providence)
FriarsPROV (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Friars Cover

98.2%

Musketeers Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PROV -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)

PROV By 1-7 points

6.8%

PROV By 8-14 points

16.9%

XAV By 1-7 points

1.4%

XAV By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
88
PROVIDENCE
67
XAVIER
Simulated Score
69
PROVIDENCE
72
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Friars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Friars (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 XAV @ PROV 84 - 94
Jan 10, 2026 PROV @ XAV 84 - 97
Mar 8, 2025 PROV @ XAV 68 - 76
Feb 12, 2025 XAV @ PROV 91 - 82
Feb 21, 2024 PROV @ XAV 79 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Providence: 13.7 vs Xavier: 11.9
Rebounding (L5) +11.4% more
Providence: 38.4 vs Xavier: 34.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Providence: 76.7% vs Xavier: 68.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Providence: 41.5% vs Xavier: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PROV Score 88.0 84
XAV Score 67.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 41.5 40.0 / 25.0
Assists 16.2 / 14.2 23.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.5 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 45.9 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 76.7 73.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 38.4 38.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.7 4.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 13.7 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
PROV
XAV
PROV
ML
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
ATS
73% 24-9
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
TTL
39% 13-20
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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