BROWN
BEARSBRWN
6-8 | Road
73
PENNSYLVANIA
QUAKERSPENN
7-7 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
QUAKERS
0%
BEARS
--
QUAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Pennsylvania)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PENN -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)
BRWN By 1-7 points
0.0%
BRWN By 8-14 points
0.0%
PENN By 1-7 points
0.1%
PENN By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Brown
64
BROWN
Pennsylvania
101
PENNSYLVANIA
Simulated Score
Brown
68
BROWN
Pennsylvania
72
PENNSYLVANIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Quakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Quakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Quakers (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Quakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.0
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u144.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
PENN @ BRWN
82 - 61
Jan 10, 2026
BRWN @ PENN
73 - 81
Feb 15, 2025
PENN @ BRWN
72 - 82
Jan 31, 2025
BRWN @ PENN
88 - 79
Feb 17, 2024
BRWN @ PENN
71 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.5%
Pennsylvania: 72.9%
vs
Brown: 65.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Pennsylvania: 38.8%
vs
Brown: 34.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Pennsylvania: 45.5%
vs
Brown: 42.2%
Steals (L5)
+40.0% more
Brown: 9.3
vs
Pennsylvania: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BRWN Score
64.0
73
PENN Score
101.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 34.3
44.0 / 35.0
Assists
14.4 / 17.8
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 42.2
46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 65.4
76.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 41.3
35.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.6 / 9.3
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.7
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRWN
Advantage
9-18-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
PENN
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRWN
Advantage
14-12-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: +1.6
PENN
--
⚖️ Over/Under
BRWN
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.3
PENN
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PENN
BRWN
PENN
BRWN
ML
53%
16-14
56%
15-12
76%
22-7
67%
18-9
ATS
63%
19-11
59%
16-11
76%
22-7
67%
18-9
TTL
70%
21-9
59%
16-11
100%
29-0
100%
27-0
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