WESTERN CAROLINA
CATAMOUNTSWCU
5-9 | Road
77
THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
3-13 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (Western Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WCU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)
WCU By 1-7 points
0.0%
WCU By 8-14 points
0.0%
CIT By 1-7 points
0.0%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Carolina
103
WESTERN CAROLINA
The Citadel
55
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
Western Carolina
70
WESTERN CAROLINA
The Citadel
73
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Catamounts (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
CIT @ WCU
49 - 87
Jan 10, 2026
WCU @ CIT
77 - 79
Feb 15, 2025
CIT @ WCU
73 - 76
Jan 25, 2025
WCU @ CIT
80 - 78
Feb 7, 2024
CIT @ WCU
64 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+28.9% more
Western Carolina: 40.4
vs
The Citadel: 28.7
Blocks (L5)
+10.5% more
Western Carolina: 3.3
vs
The Citadel: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+23.3% more
The Citadel: 15.0
vs
Western Carolina: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WCU Score
103.0
77
CIT Score
55.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 35.9
29.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.3 / 12.6
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 42.6
41.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 72.3
82.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
28.7 / 40.4
44.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.7 / 5.3
0.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 12.2
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
WCU
CIT
WCU
ML
59%
19-13
63%
19-11
62%
20-12
76%
22-7
ATS
62%
20-12
73%
22-8
64%
21-12
77%
23-7
TTL
53%
17-15
67%
20-10
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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