SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
9-7 | Road
69
MOREHEAD STATE
EAGLESMORE
7-9 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
EAGLES
0%
REDHAWKS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Morehead State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORE -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)
SEMO By 1-7 points
0.3%
SEMO By 8-14 points
0.0%
MORE By 1-7 points
2.2%
MORE By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
59
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Morehead State
86
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
68
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Morehead State
75
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
SEMO @ MORE
61 - 66
Feb 5, 2026
MORE @ SEMO
70 - 82
Jan 10, 2026
SEMO @ MORE
69 - 71
Feb 6, 2025
SEMO @ MORE
80 - 51
Jan 11, 2025
MORE @ SEMO
67 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.0% more
Morehead State: 13.3
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Morehead State: 70.3%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 61.5%
Assists (L5)
+8.7% more
Morehead State: 14.6
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 13.5
Blocks (L5)
+60.6% more
Southeast Missouri State: 4.7
vs
Morehead State: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
59.0
69
MORE Score
86.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 37.9
36.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.6 / 13.5
10.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.8 / 4.7
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 52.1
57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 61.5
72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.8 / 32.8
30.0 / 24.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.3
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 11.4
12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MORE
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MORE
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
SEMO
MORE
SEMO
ML
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
68%
21-10
50%
15-15
ATS
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
68%
21-10
50%
15-15
TTL
53%
17-15
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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