Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Coyotes DEN @ SDAK

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

8-10  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:00 PM ET
Sanford Coyote Sports Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH DAKOTA

COYOTESSDAK

8-9  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
📊
COYOTES
0%
PIONEERS --
COYOTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (South Dakota)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 CoyotesSDAK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

34.5%

Coyotes Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDAK -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)

DEN By 1-7 points

20.1%

DEN By 8-14 points

9.3%

SDAK By 1-7 points

27.4%

SDAK By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
DENVER
74
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
72
DENVER
78
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Coyotes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Coyotes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Coyotes (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Coyotes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u171.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u171.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 SDAK @ DEN 70 - 90
Jan 10, 2026 DEN @ SDAK 72 - 82
Feb 6, 2025 SDAK @ DEN 86 - 79
Jan 4, 2025 DEN @ SDAK 84 - 91
Feb 8, 2024 DEN @ SDAK 86 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.7% more
South Dakota: 14.1 vs Denver: 9.4
Assists (L5) +13.1% more
South Dakota: 12.7 vs Denver: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
South Dakota: 81.9% vs Denver: 77.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
South Dakota: 41.9% vs Denver: 38.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 70.0 72
SDAK Score 74.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.9 / 38.5 38.0 / 22.0
Assists 12.7 / 11.3 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.1 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 47.6 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 81.9 / 77.3 73.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 35.6 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.3 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 9.4 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
100%TICKETS0%
100%MONEY0%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
SDAK Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
SDAK
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
DEN
SDAK
DEN
ML
70% 21-9
56% 18-14
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
ATS
70% 21-9
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
TTL
67% 20-10
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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