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JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

2-12  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
Dunn-Oliver Acadome
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

4-11  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
HORNETS
0%
TIGERS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Alabama State)
TigersJKST (-3.5) 0 HornetsALST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

3.6%

Hornets Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)

JKST By 1-7 points

2.7%

JKST By 8-14 points

0.5%

ALST By 1-7 points

10.7%

ALST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
80
JACKSON STATE
98
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
69
JACKSON STATE
73
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hornets (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 JKST @ ALST 75 - 64
Mar 15, 2025 ALST @ JKST 60 - 56
Jan 11, 2025 ALST @ JKST 70 - 77
Jan 11, 2024 JKST @ ALST 73 - 63
Jan 7, 2023 ALST @ JKST 58 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +94.8% more
Alabama State: 9.7 vs Jackson State: 5.0
Blocks (L5) +48.8% more
Alabama State: 4.9 vs Jackson State: 3.3
Assists (L5) +23.2% more
Jackson State: 13.7 vs Alabama State: 10.5
Turnovers (L5) +8.1% more
Jackson State: 13.9 vs Alabama State: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JKST Score 80.0 75
ALST Score 98.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 35.0 9.0 / 26.0
Assists 10.5 / 13.7 8.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 43.6 33.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 75.8 67.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 29.9 52.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.7 / 5.0 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.9 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JKST Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JKST Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
JKST
ALST
JKST
ML
65% 20-11
77% 24-7
76% 19-6
73% 19-7
ATS
65% 20-11
77% 24-7
76% 19-6
73% 19-7
TTL
52% 16-15
58% 18-13
100% 25-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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