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DALLAS

STARSDAL

26-10-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
SAP Center at San Jose
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

22-18-3  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 4.85 0.839 --
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 3.87 0.800 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.85 GAA Ldr 3.87
0.839 Ldr Save % 0.800
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
SHARKS
100%
STARS --
SHARKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 SharksSJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Sharks Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2
SAN JOSE
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
4
SAN JOSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sharks Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sharks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Sharks (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 SJ @ DAL 0 - 5
Jan 10, 2026 DAL @ SJ 4 - 5
Dec 18, 2025 DAL @ SJ 5 - 3
Dec 5, 2025 SJ @ DAL 1 - 4
Feb 8, 2025 DAL @ SJ 8 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +55.1% more
San Jose: 6.8 vs Dallas: 4.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +33.5% more
San Jose: 16.6 vs Dallas: 12.5
Power Play % (L5) +18.8%
San Jose: 36.4% vs Dallas: 17.6%
Faceoff % (L5) +3.0%
San Jose: 50.9% vs Dallas: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 4
SJ Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.6 / 12.5 11.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 50.9 / 47.9 48.1 / 51.9
Hits 20.4 / 19.9 21.0 / 12.0
Power Play % 36.4 / 17.6 66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.5 / 28.6 31.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 6.8 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
88%MONEY12%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJ
DAL
SJ
DAL
ML
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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