TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
26-13-3 | Road
7
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
22-12-8 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Cam York
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.00 | 0.900 | -- |
| Cam York | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.900
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
FLYERS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PHI By 1 goal
19.7%
PHI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 5, 2026
PHI @ TB
1 - 4
Jan 12, 2026
TB @ PHI
5 - 1
Jan 10, 2026
TB @ PHI
7 - 2
Nov 24, 2025
PHI @ TB
0 - 3
Mar 17, 2025
PHI @ TB
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+29.5% more
Philadelphia: 4.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.8
Hits (L5)
+20.4% more
Philadelphia: 21.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+18.0% more
Philadelphia: 15.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 13.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.0% more
Philadelphia: 29.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 26.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
7
PHI Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.7 / 13.3
14.0 / 6.0
Faceoff %
47.7 / 40.1
37.0 / 63.0
Hits
21.7 / 18.0
32.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
3.6 / 43.6
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.4 / 26.2
20.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 3.8
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TB
PHI
TB
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
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