WINTHROP
EAGLESWIN
10-8 | Road
71
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
SPARTANSUPST
8-9 | Home
50
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
SPARTANS
100%
EAGLES
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UPST +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UPST)
WIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
WIN By 8-14 points
20.1%
UPST By 1-7 points
21.6%
UPST By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Winthrop
105
WINTHROP
South Carolina Upstate
102
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
Winthrop
71
WINTHROP
South Carolina Upstate
75
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
UPST @ WIN
64 - 68
Jan 10, 2026
WIN @ UPST
71 - 50
Feb 8, 2025
WIN @ UPST
105 - 95
Jan 2, 2025
UPST @ WIN
76 - 95
Feb 24, 2024
UPST @ WIN
74 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+25.2% more
Winthrop: 44.9
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 33.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Winthrop: 71.1%
vs
South Carolina Upstate: 67.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+24.6% more
South Carolina Upstate: 12.6
vs
Winthrop: 10.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.1%
South Carolina Upstate: 36.9%
vs
Winthrop: 23.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIN Score
105.0
71
UPST Score
102.0
50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 23.8
18.0 / 39.0
Assists
12.3 / 11.6
8.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.2
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 41.1
35.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
67.7 / 71.1
71.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 44.9
31.0 / 49.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.3
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 10.1
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIN
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
UPST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIN
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
UPST
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
WIN
UPST
WIN
ML
61%
19-12
70%
23-10
83%
25-5
79%
26-7
ATS
61%
19-12
79%
26-7
83%
25-5
79%
26-7
TTL
52%
16-15
58%
19-14
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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