Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinal @ Cavaliers STAN @ UVA

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

13-3  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 2:15 PM ET
John Paul Jones Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

13-2  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINAL
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
CARDINAL --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Virginia)
CardinalSTAN (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinal Cover

4.5%

Cavaliers Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

STAN By 1-7 points

3.3%

STAN By 8-14 points

0.6%

UVA By 1-7 points

12.2%

UVA By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
68
STANFORD
85
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
58
STANFORD
65
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 STAN @ UVA 55 - 70
Jan 11, 2025 UVA @ STAN 65 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +84.4% more
Virginia: 18.9 vs Stanford: 10.3
Blocks (L5) +45.7% more
Virginia: 6.0 vs Stanford: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +31.6% more
Virginia: 12.1 vs Stanford: 9.2
Rebounding (L5) +29.9% more
Virginia: 42.6 vs Stanford: 32.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 68.0 55
UVA Score 85.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 35.6 27.0 / 19.0
Assists 18.9 / 10.3 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 6.0 / 4.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 42.4 44.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 74.5 82.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 32.8 37.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.6 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.2 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
STAN
UVA
STAN
ML
67% 24-12
48% 16-17
72% 26-10
50% 16-16
ATS
75% 27-9
48% 16-17
72% 26-10
50% 16-16
TTL
53% 19-17
55% 18-15
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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