Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Sycamores EVAN @ INST

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

4-13  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

8-8  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
SYCAMORES
0%
PURPLE ACES --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Indiana State)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

34.5%

Sycamores Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around INST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

EVAN By 1-7 points

20.1%

EVAN By 8-14 points

9.3%

INST By 1-7 points

27.4%

INST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
54
EVANSVILLE
58
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
67
EVANSVILLE
78
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sycamores Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sycamores (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 INST @ EVAN 84 - 63
Jan 10, 2026 EVAN @ INST 72 - 69
Feb 19, 2025 EVAN @ INST 79 - 74
Jan 4, 2025 INST @ EVAN 66 - 62
Feb 28, 2024 INST @ EVAN 85 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +43.0% more
Indiana State: 17.7 vs Evansville: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.1%
Indiana State: 33.7% vs Evansville: 18.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Indiana State: 47.2% vs Evansville: 42.8%
Blocks (L5) +27.6% more
Evansville: 3.5 vs Indiana State: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 54.0 72
INST Score 58.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 18.6 18.0 / 45.0
Assists 17.7 / 12.4 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.5 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 42.8 39.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 71.5 71.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 32.3 41.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.6 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 15.4 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
INST Advantage
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
EVAN
INST
EVAN
ML
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
TTL
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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