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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

10-5  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:30 PM ET
Groniger Arena
View Odds Details →

EASTERN ILLINOIS

PANTHERSEIU

5-10  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
TIGERS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 PanthersEIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

38.2%

Panthers Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EIU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EIU)

TNST By 1-7 points

27.2%

TNST By 8-14 points

20.1%

EIU By 1-7 points

21.6%

EIU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
74
TENNESSEE STATE
71
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
TENNESSEE STATE
72
EASTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 EIU @ TNST 68 - 77
Jan 10, 2026 TNST @ EIU 70 - 74
Feb 13, 2025 TNST @ EIU 66 - 49
Jan 18, 2025 EIU @ TNST 65 - 84
Feb 22, 2024 EIU @ TNST 73 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Tennessee State: 49.1% vs Eastern Illinois: 41.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Tennessee State: 37.2% vs Eastern Illinois: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 74.0 70
EIU Score 71.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 37.2 45.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.3 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.5 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 49.1 46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 72.7 82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 36.5 38.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.7 / 9.9 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.4 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
EIU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
EIU
15-13-2 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
EIU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EIU
TNST
EIU
TNST
ML
56% 18-14
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
63% 17-10
ATS
50% 16-16
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
64% 18-10
TTL
69% 22-10
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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