Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Demon Deacons @ Tar Heels WAKE @ UNC

WAKE FOREST

DEMON DEACONSWAKE

10-6  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 6:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

13-2  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
DEMON DEACONS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
DEMON DEACONS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (North Carolina)
Demon DeaconsWAKE (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demon Deacons Cover

2.9%

Tar Heels Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

WAKE By 1-7 points

2.2%

WAKE By 8-14 points

0.4%

UNC By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
52
WAKE FOREST
71
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
73
WAKE FOREST
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 WAKE @ UNC 84 - 87
Mar 13, 2025 UNC @ WAKE 68 - 59
Jan 21, 2025 UNC @ WAKE 66 - 67
Jan 22, 2024 WAKE @ UNC 64 - 85
Feb 7, 2023 UNC @ WAKE 85 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +40.8% more
North Carolina: 19.5 vs Wake Forest: 13.8
Rebounding (L5) +33.2% more
North Carolina: 39.0 vs Wake Forest: 29.3
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
North Carolina: 47.6% vs Wake Forest: 45.3%
Steals (L5) +44.3% more
Wake Forest: 9.4 vs North Carolina: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 52.0 84
UNC Score 71.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 36.2 35.0 / 40.0
Assists 19.5 / 13.8 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.7 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 45.3 53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.0 / 76.4 67.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 29.3 35.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.2 / 9.4 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 12.6 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
16-18-1 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.0
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
WAKE
UNC
WAKE
ML
76% 25-8
49% 17-18
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
ATS
73% 24-9
66% 23-12
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
TTL
55% 18-15
60% 21-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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