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CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

13-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 4:00 PM ET
Cassell Coliseum
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

12-4  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
📊
HOKIES
100%
GOLDEN BEARS --
HOKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (California)
Golden BearsCAL (-3.5) 0 HokiesVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Bears Cover

94.5%

Hokies Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

CAL By 1-7 points

13.7%

CAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

VT By 1-7 points

4.0%

VT By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
90
CALIFORNIA
74
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
67
CALIFORNIA
74
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hokies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Hokies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 CAL @ VT 75 - 78
Mar 11, 2025 CAL @ VT 82 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 VT @ CAL 71 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
California: 6.9 vs Virginia Tech: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
California: 81.3% vs Virginia Tech: 71.9%
Assists (L5) +8.2% more
California: 13.4 vs Virginia Tech: 12.3
Turnovers (L5) +70.3% more
Virginia Tech: 12.4 vs California: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 90.0 75
VT Score 74.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 28.9 22.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.3 / 13.4 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.2 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 39.8 43.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 81.3 87.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 31.2 28.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.9 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 7.3 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
CAL
VT
CAL
ML
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
77% 24-7
ATS
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
78% 25-7
TTL
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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