LSU
TIGERSLSU
12-3 | Road
73
VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
15-0 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
COMMODORES
0%
TIGERS
--
COMMODORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
LSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
LSU By 8-14 points
9.3%
VAN By 1-7 points
27.4%
VAN By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
86
LSU
Vanderbilt
90
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
LSU
70
LSU
Vanderbilt
78
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Commodores
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Commodores
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Commodores (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Commodores (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 10, 2026
LSU @ VAN
73 - 84
Jan 4, 2025
VAN @ LSU
80 - 72
Mar 2, 2024
LSU @ VAN
75 - 61
Jan 9, 2024
VAN @ LSU
69 - 77
Mar 9, 2023
LSU @ VAN
68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.7% more
Vanderbilt: 8.5
vs
LSU: 6.6
Assists (L5)
+15.1% more
Vanderbilt: 16.6
vs
LSU: 14.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Vanderbilt: 38.6%
vs
LSU: 32.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Vanderbilt: 49.7%
vs
LSU: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
86.0
73
VAN Score
90.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 32.7
23.0 / 35.0
Assists
16.6 / 14.4
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.3
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 45.8
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
78.4 / 80.5
79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 37.4
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.6
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 12.2
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
--
VAN
Advantage
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
--
VAN
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
--
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
LSU
VAN
LSU
ML
69%
25-11
62%
20-12
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
ATS
78%
28-8
66%
21-11
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
TTL
58%
21-15
72%
23-9
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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