Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Lakers MIL @ LAL

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

16-21  |  Road

105
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

23-12  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
BUCKS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Los Angeles)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

8.1%

Lakers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

MIL By 1-7 points

5.8%

MIL By 8-14 points

1.4%

LAL By 1-7 points

16.9%

LAL By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
104
MILWAUKEE
118
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
111
MILWAUKEE
114
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 MIL @ LAL 105 - 101
Nov 15, 2025 LAL @ MIL 119 - 95
Mar 20, 2025 MIL @ LAL 118 - 89
Mar 13, 2025 LAL @ MIL 106 - 126
Oct 10, 2024 LAL @ MIL 107 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +77.1% more
Los Angeles: 8.8 vs Milwaukee: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Los Angeles: 16.0 vs Milwaukee: 12.7
Blocks (L5) +19.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.1 vs Milwaukee: 3.4
Assists (L5) +10.2% more
Milwaukee: 26.5 vs Los Angeles: 23.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 104.0 105
LAL Score 118.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 38.8 42.0 / 35.0
Assists 23.8 / 26.5 28.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.4 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 49.7 43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 75.1 57.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 40.8 45.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.0 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 12.7 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
MIL
LAL
MIL
ML
61% 68-43
64% 61-35
54% 49-42
60% 49-32
ATS
61% 67-43-1
68% 65-31
54% 49-42
60% 49-32
TTL
61% 66-43-2
55% 53-43
100% 91-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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