Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Zips @ Falcons AKR @ BGSU

AKRON

ZIPSAKR

11-4  |  Road

77
FINAL
Fri, Jan 9 • 8:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

11-5  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
ZIPS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
ZIPS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Akron)
ZipsAKR (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Zips Cover

78.8%

Falcons Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AKR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

AKR By 1-7 points

25.3%

AKR By 8-14 points

26.2%

BGSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

BGSU By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
90
AKRON
82
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
72
AKRON
76
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Zips Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Zips (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 AKR @ BGSU 77 - 67
Mar 13, 2025 BGSU @ AKR 67 - 96
Jan 3, 2025 AKR @ BGSU 71 - 68
Jan 5, 2024 BGSU @ AKR 67 - 83
Jan 10, 2023 AKR @ BGSU 74 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.3% more
Akron: 3.1 vs Bowling Green: 2.2
Turnovers (L5) +24.4% more
Akron: 13.9 vs Bowling Green: 10.5
Assists (L5) +19.7% more
Akron: 19.6 vs Bowling Green: 15.8
Rebounding (L5) +12.1% more
Akron: 37.0 vs Bowling Green: 32.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 90.0 77
BGSU Score 82.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 33.9 29.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.8 / 19.6 10.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 52.6 43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 76.9 64.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 37.0 36.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.5 / 9.2 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 13.9 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
BGSU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
BGSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +0.2
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
AKR
BGSU
AKR
ML
66% 21-11
71% 24-10
56% 18-14
65% 22-12
ATS
72% 23-9
76% 26-8
56% 18-14
65% 22-12
TTL
53% 17-15
59% 20-14
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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