NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
5-8 | Road
80
EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
4-11 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
COLONELS
100%
LIONS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (North Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNA -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)
UNA By 1-7 points
0.4%
UNA By 8-14 points
2.2%
EKU By 1-7 points
0.0%
EKU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
North Alabama
105
NORTH ALABAMA
Eastern Kentucky
71
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
North Alabama
74
NORTH ALABAMA
Eastern Kentucky
79
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Colonels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 15, 2026
EKU @ UNA
78 - 84
Jan 8, 2026
UNA @ EKU
80 - 88
Jan 4, 2025
EKU @ UNA
67 - 88
Feb 22, 2024
UNA @ EKU
72 - 75
Jan 13, 2024
EKU @ UNA
81 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.3% more
North Alabama: 8.0
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 5.5
Blocks (L5)
+18.2% more
North Alabama: 3.6
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+8.2% more
North Alabama: 10.5
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 9.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
North Alabama: 68.1%
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 65.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNA Score
105.0
80
EKU Score
71.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 25.4
35.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.5 / 7.1
18.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.6
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 36.5
46.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
65.1 / 68.1
83.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 33.5
38.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.5 / 8.0
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 10.5
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
EKU
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
Advantage
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
UNA
EKU
UNA
ML
44%
14-18
43%
13-17
69%
22-10
57%
16-12
ATS
56%
18-14
60%
18-12
69%
22-10
57%
16-12
TTL
53%
17-15
63%
19-11
100%
32-0
100%
28-0
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