CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
7-8 | Road
78
BELLARMINE
KNIGHTSBELL
5-9 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
KNIGHTS
0%
BEARS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Bellarmine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BELL -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)
CARK By 1-7 points
0.0%
CARK By 8-14 points
0.0%
BELL By 1-7 points
0.3%
BELL By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Arkansas
45
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Bellarmine
80
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
Central Arkansas
69
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Bellarmine
73
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knights (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
BELL @ CARK
73 - 86
Feb 11, 2026
BELL @ CARK
76 - 84
Jan 8, 2026
CARK @ BELL
78 - 84
Jan 4, 2025
BELL @ CARK
65 - 71
Feb 22, 2024
CARK @ BELL
65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Bellarmine: 53.0%
vs
Central Arkansas: 48.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
Bellarmine: 76.3%
vs
Central Arkansas: 72.4%
Blocks (L5)
+52.4% more
Central Arkansas: 1.2
vs
Bellarmine: 0.6
Steals (L5)
+45.8% more
Central Arkansas: 7.6
vs
Bellarmine: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CARK Score
45.0
78
BELL Score
80.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 38.2
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
13.6 / 18.9
18.0 / 15.0
Blocks
0.6 / 1.2
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
53.0 / 48.2
52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 72.4
71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
29.7 / 33.2
39.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.1 / 7.6
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 11.2
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
BELL
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
BELL
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
CARK
BELL
CARK
ML
72%
23-9
67%
22-11
94%
29-2
70%
23-10
ATS
72%
23-9
61%
20-13
94%
29-2
70%
23-10
TTL
50%
16-16
50%
16-16-1
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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