CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
6-10 | Road
90
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
9-7 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
MATADORS
0%
MUSTANGS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
CP By 1-7 points
15.3%
CP By 8-14 points
5.8%
CSUN By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSUN By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
71
CAL POLY
Cal State Northridge
78
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
68
CAL POLY
Cal State Northridge
72
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Matadors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u175.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u175.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
CSUN @ CP
97 - 96
Jan 8, 2026
CP @ CSUN
90 - 95
Feb 15, 2025
CP @ CSUN
85 - 89
Dec 7, 2024
CSUN @ CP
102 - 91
Feb 8, 2024
CP @ CSUN
65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+72.4% more
Cal State Northridge: 2.6
vs
Cal Poly: 1.5
Steals (L5)
+55.9% more
Cal State Northridge: 8.2
vs
Cal Poly: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+43.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 17.3
vs
Cal Poly: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Cal State Northridge: 47.2%
vs
Cal Poly: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
71.0
90
CSUN Score
78.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 30.8
45.0 / 36.0
Assists
17.3 / 12.0
20.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 37.9
52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 76.0
59.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 38.4
49.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.2 / 5.3
6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.1
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
CP
CSUN
CP
ML
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
67%
22-11
58%
19-14
ATS
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
67%
22-11
58%
19-14
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
