UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
11-4 | Road
76
MOREHEAD STATE
EAGLESMORE
7-8 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
EAGLES
0%
SKYHAWKS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Morehead State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORE -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)
UTM By 1-7 points
4.8%
UTM By 8-14 points
1.1%
MORE By 1-7 points
15.3%
MORE By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Martin
63
UT MARTIN
Morehead State
78
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
UT Martin
71
UT MARTIN
Morehead State
76
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
MORE @ UTM
61 - 55
Jan 8, 2026
UTM @ MORE
76 - 68
Mar 1, 2025
MORE @ UTM
59 - 47
Dec 19, 2024
UTM @ MORE
69 - 70
Mar 8, 2024
MORE @ UTM
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Morehead State: 46.1%
vs
UT Martin: 41.4%
Blocks (L5)
+59.1% more
UT Martin: 5.5
vs
Morehead State: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+25.2% more
UT Martin: 8.9
vs
Morehead State: 6.6
Rebounding (L5)
+16.7% more
UT Martin: 41.1
vs
Morehead State: 34.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTM Score
63.0
76
MORE Score
78.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 29.1
32.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.9 / 12.2
18.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.3 / 5.5
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 41.4
42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 76.1
68.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 41.1
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.6 / 8.9
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.2
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
MORE
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
MORE
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
UTM
MORE
UTM
ML
62%
20-12
69%
22-10
68%
21-10
69%
20-9
ATS
59%
19-13
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
69%
20-9
TTL
53%
17-15
44%
14-18
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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