DENVER
PIONEERSDEN
8-9 | Road
79
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
8-9 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
JACKRABBITS
100%
PIONEERS
--
JACKRABBITS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
6.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.9%
SDST By 1-7 points
1.4%
SDST By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
99
DENVER
South Dakota State
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
Denver
70
DENVER
South Dakota State
76
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pioneers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pioneers (-8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
SDST @ DEN
61 - 79
Jan 8, 2026
DEN @ SDST
79 - 87
Mar 1, 2025
SDST @ DEN
62 - 78
Jan 2, 2025
DEN @ SDST
70 - 91
Mar 12, 2024
DEN @ SDST
68 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+17.3% more
Denver: 3.6
vs
South Dakota State: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.9%
Denver: 82.5%
vs
South Dakota State: 70.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Denver: 49.8%
vs
South Dakota State: 46.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Denver: 38.8%
vs
South Dakota State: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
99.0
79
SDST Score
78.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 38.8
33.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.7 / 11.9
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 49.8
50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 82.5
76.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 36.4
41.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.9 / 5.0
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.1
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
17-11-1
(60.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +7.0
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
DEN
SDST
DEN
ML
75%
24-8
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
59%
19-13
ATS
78%
25-7
66%
21-11
53%
17-15
59%
19-13
TTL
53%
17-15
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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