Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Bulldogs LIB @ LT

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

11-3  |  Road

72
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

8-6  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
FLAMES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

3.6%

Bulldogs Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LT -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

LIB By 1-7 points

2.7%

LIB By 8-14 points

0.5%

LT By 1-7 points

10.7%

LT By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
60
LIBERTY
78
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
69
LIBERTY
76
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 LT @ LIB 76 - 71
Jan 8, 2026 LIB @ LT 72 - 56
Feb 6, 2025 LT @ LIB 53 - 77
Jan 11, 2025 LIB @ LT 74 - 79
Feb 10, 2024 LT @ LIB 62 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Louisiana Tech: 11.4 vs Liberty: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +24.5% more
Louisiana Tech: 39.6 vs Liberty: 31.8
Steals (L5) +9.8% more
Louisiana Tech: 6.8 vs Liberty: 6.2
Blocks (L5) +28.5% more
Liberty: 4.2 vs Louisiana Tech: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 60.0 72
LT Score 78.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.6 / 37.9 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.4 / 16.6 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.2 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.6 / 48.6 35.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 60.6 / 70.4 45.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 31.8 33.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.2 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 9.1 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
LT
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
LT Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
LIB
LT
LIB
ML
58% 19-14
50% 17-17
72% 23-9
53% 18-16
ATS
61% 20-13
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
53% 18-16
TTL
61% 20-13
41% 14-20
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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