Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Bulldogs SCU @ GONZ

SANTA CLARA

BRONCOSSCU

13-4  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 11:30 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

16-1  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BRONCOS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (Gonzaga)
BroncosSCU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

0.0%

Bulldogs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

SCU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

GONZ By 1-7 points

0.0%

GONZ By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
53
SANTA CLARA
99
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
72
SANTA CLARA
85
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 SCU @ GONZ 68 - 79
Feb 14, 2026 GONZ @ SCU 94 - 86
Jan 8, 2026 SCU @ GONZ 77 - 89
Feb 25, 2025 GONZ @ SCU 95 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 SCU @ GONZ 103 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
Gonzaga: 4.3 vs Santa Clara: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +12.1% more
Gonzaga: 42.9 vs Santa Clara: 38.3
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Gonzaga: 52.9% vs Santa Clara: 50.2%
Steals (L5) +25.1% more
Santa Clara: 11.7 vs Gonzaga: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCU Score 53.0 77
GONZ Score 99.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 34.5 38.0 / 27.0
Assists 19.9 / 19.7 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.8 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.9 / 50.2 58.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 59.2 / 81.7 71.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 38.3 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.7 / 11.7 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 12.9 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
GONZ
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +4.0
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
SCU
GONZ
SCU
ML
71% 25-10
44% 15-19
69% 20-9
73% 22-8
ATS
69% 24-11
53% 18-16
69% 20-9
74% 23-8
TTL
57% 20-15
47% 16-18
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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