Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Leathernecks TNST @ WIU

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

9-5  |  Road

90
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 8:30 PM ET
Western Hall
View Odds Details →

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

4-11  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
LEATHERNECKS
0%
TIGERS --
LEATHERNECKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Western Illinois)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 LeathernecksWIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

2.9%

Leathernecks Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

TNST By 1-7 points

2.2%

TNST By 8-14 points

0.4%

WIU By 1-7 points

9.3%

WIU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
50
TENNESSEE STATE
69
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
TENNESSEE STATE
72
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leathernecks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Leathernecks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 WIU @ TNST 56 - 83
Jan 8, 2026 TNST @ WIU 90 - 68
Feb 6, 2025 WIU @ TNST 69 - 87
Jan 11, 2025 TNST @ WIU 72 - 52
Mar 7, 2024 TNST @ WIU 59 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.8% more
Western Illinois: 14.1 vs Tennessee State: 11.6
Steals (L5) +51.4% more
Tennessee State: 10.4 vs Western Illinois: 5.0
Assists (L5) +29.1% more
Tennessee State: 13.9 vs Western Illinois: 9.9
Blocks (L5) +17.5% more
Tennessee State: 2.8 vs Western Illinois: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 50.0 90
WIU Score 69.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.6 / 35.2 8.0 / 41.0
Assists 9.9 / 13.9 2.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.8 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 37.0 / 45.7 38.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 76.6 74.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 36.2 32.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.0 / 10.4 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 11.6 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
TNST
WIU
TNST
ML
45% 14-17
52% 16-15
61% 19-12
63% 17-10
ATS
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
64% 18-10
TTL
45% 14-17
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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