RUTGERS
SCARLET KNIGHTSRUTG
8-7 | Road
55
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
11-3 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
SCARLET KNIGHTS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
SCARLET KNIGHTS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
RUTG By 1-7 points
0.0%
RUTG By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILL By 1-7 points
0.1%
ILL By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Rutgers
46
RUTGERS
Illinois
86
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Rutgers
68
RUTGERS
Illinois
75
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (-22.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 8, 2026
RUTG @ ILL
55 - 81
Feb 5, 2025
ILL @ RUTG
73 - 82
Jan 21, 2024
RUTG @ ILL
63 - 86
Dec 2, 2023
ILL @ RUTG
76 - 58
Feb 11, 2023
RUTG @ ILL
60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+93.7% more
Illinois: 6.1
vs
Rutgers: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+49.7% more
Illinois: 15.2
vs
Rutgers: 10.2
Rebounding (L5)
+26.1% more
Illinois: 43.1
vs
Rutgers: 34.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Illinois: 45.9%
vs
Rutgers: 39.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score
46.0
55
ILL Score
86.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 29.3
35.0 / 27.0
Assists
15.2 / 10.2
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
6.1 / 3.2
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 39.8
44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 78.8
86.0 / 38.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 34.2
45.0 / 32.0
Steals
3.2 / 9.1
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.1
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.3
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.6
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
RUTG
ILL
RUTG
ML
65%
24-13
53%
18-16
57%
20-15
70%
23-10
ATS
70%
26-11
68%
23-11
57%
20-15
70%
23-10
TTL
57%
21-16
53%
18-16
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…