SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
4-11 | Road
72
UTAH VALLEY
WOLVERINESUVU
12-4 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
WOLVERINES
0%
THUNDERBIRDS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Utah Valley)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)
SUU By 1-7 points
4.0%
SUU By 8-14 points
0.8%
UVU By 1-7 points
13.7%
UVU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Utah
52
SOUTHERN UTAH
Utah Valley
68
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
Southern Utah
72
SOUTHERN UTAH
Utah Valley
75
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
UVU @ SUU
92 - 88
Jan 21, 2026
UVU @ SUU
70 - 84
Jan 8, 2026
SUU @ UVU
72 - 89
Mar 1, 2025
SUU @ UVU
59 - 100
Feb 15, 2025
UVU @ SUU
70 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+53.4% more
Utah Valley: 19.2
vs
Southern Utah: 12.5
Steals (L5)
+49.5% more
Utah Valley: 7.9
vs
Southern Utah: 5.3
Turnovers (L5)
+21.1% more
Utah Valley: 16.6
vs
Southern Utah: 13.7
Blocks (L5)
+16.2% more
Utah Valley: 5.5
vs
Southern Utah: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SUU Score
52.0
72
UVU Score
68.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 31.5
41.0 / 48.0
Assists
19.2 / 12.5
25.0 / 18.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.7 / 44.8
55.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 68.4
63.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 33.8
45.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.9 / 5.3
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 13.7
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
UVU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
UVU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
SUU
UVU
SUU
ML
56%
18-14
61%
19-12
72%
23-9
68%
21-10
ATS
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
74%
25-9
69%
22-10
TTL
44%
14-18
52%
16-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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