Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Mavericks UND @ OMA

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

8-10  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Baxter Arena
View Odds Details →

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

7-10  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Omaha)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 MavericksOMA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

24.2%

Mavericks Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OMA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)

UND By 1-7 points

15.3%

UND By 8-14 points

5.8%

OMA By 1-7 points

26.2%

OMA By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
86
NORTH DAKOTA
93
OMAHA
Simulated Score
74
NORTH DAKOTA
78
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 OMA @ UND 73 - 76
Jan 8, 2026 UND @ OMA 79 - 90
Feb 6, 2025 UND @ OMA 77 - 80
Jan 2, 2025 OMA @ UND 95 - 85
Mar 10, 2024 OMA @ UND 73 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.9% more
North Dakota: 8.0 vs Omaha: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
North Dakota: 77.8% vs Omaha: 67.1%
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
North Dakota: 38.2 vs Omaha: 34.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 86.0 79
OMA Score 93.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 35.0 47.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.8 / 12.7 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 42.9 60.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 77.8 80.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 38.2 35.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.0 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 10.8 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
UND
OMA
UND
ML
79% 26-7
44% 15-19
67% 22-11
50% 17-17
ATS
76% 25-8
50% 17-17
67% 22-11
50% 17-17
TTL
73% 24-9
65% 22-12
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 7 hours, 33 minutes ago
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 14 hours, 15 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 20 hours, 23 minutes ago
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
si 1 day, 1 hour ago