Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Cougars LR @ SIUE

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

5-10  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 8:30 PM ET
First Community Arena
View Odds Details →

SIU EDWARDSVILLE

COUGARSSIUE

10-6  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
TROJANS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Little Rock)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 CougarsSIUE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

81.6%

Cougars Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LR By 1-7 points

24.3%

LR By 8-14 points

26.8%

SIUE By 1-7 points

12.2%

SIUE By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
LITTLE ROCK
67
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Simulated Score
68
LITTLE ROCK
72
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SIUE @ LR 71 - 61
Jan 8, 2026 LR @ SIUE 73 - 70
Mar 1, 2025 LR @ SIUE 65 - 73
Dec 19, 2024 SIUE @ LR 56 - 60
Feb 1, 2024 LR @ SIUE 66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.7% more
Little Rock: 8.6 vs SIU Edwardsville: 7.4
Assists (L5) +13.0% more
Little Rock: 13.8 vs SIU Edwardsville: 12.0
Blocks (L5) +9.6% more
Little Rock: 4.7 vs SIU Edwardsville: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Little Rock: 46.3% vs SIU Edwardsville: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 76.0 73
SIUE Score 67.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 33.3 41.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.0 / 13.8 17.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.7 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 46.3 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 66.3 69.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 35.0 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.6 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 13.7 16.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
SIUE Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
SIUE Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIUE
LR
SIUE
LR
ML
65% 20-11
52% 16-15
60% 18-12
68% 17-8
ATS
55% 17-14
45% 14-17
60% 18-12
68% 17-8
TTL
48% 15-16
58% 18-13
100% 30-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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