TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
20-15-7 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
22-12-7 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 1.92 | 0.913 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.92
--
Save %
0.913
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
FLYERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PHI By 1 goal
19.7%
PHI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
PHI @ TOR
3 - 2
Jan 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
TOR @ PHI
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
PHI @ TOR
2 - 7
Jan 7, 2025
TOR @ PHI
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+50.3% more
Philadelphia: 4.8
vs
Toronto: 3.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+30.9% more
Philadelphia: 18.1
vs
Toronto: 13.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+28.1% more
Philadelphia: 32.6
vs
Toronto: 25.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.9%
Philadelphia: 55.9%
vs
Toronto: 53.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.0
2
PHI Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.1 / 13.8
11.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
55.9 / 53.0
31.4 / 68.6
Hits
20.0 / 21.3
25.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
533.0 / 2470.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.6 / 25.4
23.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 3.2
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
ATS
40%
2-3
0%
0-4
40%
2-3
75%
3-1
TTL
20%
1-4
100%
4-0
40%
2-3
75%
3-1
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