MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
16-20 | Road
113
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
19-18 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
BUCKS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
MIL By 1-7 points
16.9%
MIL By 8-14 points
6.8%
GS By 1-7 points
26.8%
GS By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
109
MILWAUKEE
Golden State
115
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Golden State
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u228.5
Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
MIL @ GS
113 - 120
Oct 30, 2025
GS @ MIL
110 - 120
Mar 18, 2025
MIL @ GS
93 - 104
Feb 10, 2025
GS @ MIL
125 - 111
Mar 6, 2024
MIL @ GS
90 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+97.5% more
Golden State: 11.8
vs
Milwaukee: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+12.7% more
Golden State: 28.5
vs
Milwaukee: 25.3
Blocks (L5)
+10.6% more
Golden State: 4.0
vs
Milwaukee: 3.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Milwaukee: 47.6%
vs
Golden State: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
109.0
113
GS Score
115.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 36.2
38.0 / 44.0
Assists
28.5 / 25.3
31.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.6
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 47.6
49.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 83.7
78.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 43.3
41.0 / 36.0
Steals
11.8 / 6.0
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.1
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIL
GS
MIL
ML
55%
95-79
64%
61-35
58%
49-35
60%
49-32
ATS
58%
101-73
68%
65-31
58%
49-35
60%
49-32
TTL
77%
134-40
55%
53-43
100%
84-0
100%
81-0
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