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SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

12-2  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Littlejohn Coliseum
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

TIGERSCLEM

12-3  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
MUSTANGS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Clemson)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 TigersCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

8.1%

Tigers Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLEM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

SMU By 1-7 points

5.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

1.4%

CLEM By 1-7 points

16.9%

CLEM By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
SMU
90
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
68
SMU
72
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 SMU @ CLEM 70 - 74
Mar 13, 2025 SMU @ CLEM 54 - 57
Feb 22, 2025 CLEM @ SMU 79 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Clemson: 11.9 vs SMU: 9.9
Blocks (L5) +60.9% more
SMU: 4.7 vs Clemson: 1.9
Assists (L5) +49.5% more
SMU: 22.5 vs Clemson: 11.4
Rebounding (L5) +17.0% more
SMU: 37.2 vs Clemson: 30.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 76.0 70
CLEM Score 90.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 41.0 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.4 / 22.5 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.7 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 54.5 43.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 72.7 71.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 37.2 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 9.9 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
CLEM Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
CLEM Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
CLEM
13-21-0
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
SMU
CLEM
SMU
ML
63% 22-13
59% 20-14
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
ATS
71% 25-10
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
TTL
69% 24-11
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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