ARIZONA STATE
SUN DEVILSASU
9-5 | Road
76
BYU
COUGARSBYU
13-1 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
COUGARS
0%
SUN DEVILS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BYU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
ASU By 1-7 points
21.6%
ASU By 8-14 points
10.7%
BYU By 1-7 points
27.2%
BYU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona State
85
ARIZONA STATE
BYU
88
BYU
Simulated Score
Arizona State
72
ARIZONA STATE
BYU
78
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o165.5
Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
ASU @ BYU
76 - 104
Feb 26, 2025
BYU @ ASU
91 - 81
Dec 31, 2024
ASU @ BYU
56 - 76
Nov 23, 2023
BYU @ ASU
77 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+52.6% more
BYU: 10.7
vs
Arizona State: 7.0
Rebounding (L5)
+29.5% more
BYU: 41.7
vs
Arizona State: 32.2
Assists (L5)
+15.2% more
BYU: 18.0
vs
Arizona State: 15.6
Turnovers (L5)
+14.3% more
BYU: 13.9
vs
Arizona State: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ASU Score
85.0
76
BYU Score
88.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 26.5
45.0 / 28.0
Assists
18.0 / 15.6
19.0 / 18.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.9
10.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 46.2
57.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 81.4
80.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 32.2
40.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.7 / 7.0
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 12.2
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
BYU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
Advantage
20-12-1
(62.5%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.9
BYU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ASU
BYU
ASU
ML
60%
21-14
52%
17-16
72%
23-9
68%
21-10
ATS
54%
19-16
52%
17-16
72%
23-9
68%
21-10
TTL
69%
24-11
64%
21-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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