CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
13-2 | Road
60
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
12-2 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN BEARS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
GOLDEN BEARS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
CAL By 1-7 points
24.3%
CAL By 8-14 points
13.7%
UVA By 1-7 points
26.2%
UVA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
California
76
CALIFORNIA
Virginia
77
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
California
55
CALIFORNIA
Virginia
62
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
CAL @ UVA
60 - 84
Jan 8, 2025
UVA @ CAL
61 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+97.2% more
Virginia: 12.7
vs
California: 6.4
Blocks (L5)
+39.6% more
Virginia: 4.6
vs
California: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+22.4% more
Virginia: 41.4
vs
California: 33.8
Assists (L5)
+19.9% more
Virginia: 16.9
vs
California: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAL Score
76.0
60
UVA Score
77.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 35.3
31.0 / 16.0
Assists
16.9 / 14.1
23.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.3
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 42.1
50.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 79.0
65.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 33.8
45.0 / 26.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.3
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 6.4
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
CAL
UVA
CAL
ML
67%
24-12
61%
20-13
72%
26-10
77%
24-7
ATS
75%
27-9
64%
21-12
72%
26-10
78%
25-7
TTL
53%
19-17
70%
23-10
100%
36-0
100%
32-0
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