BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
13-3 | Road
78
NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
12-3 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
BRUINS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
BEL By 1-7 points
8.0%
BEL By 8-14 points
2.2%
UNI By 1-7 points
20.1%
UNI By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Belmont
63
BELMONT
Northern Iowa
75
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
Belmont
72
BELMONT
Northern Iowa
77
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
UNI @ BEL
86 - 91
Jan 7, 2026
BEL @ UNI
78 - 65
Feb 19, 2025
UNI @ BEL
82 - 75
Jan 1, 2025
BEL @ UNI
70 - 76
Mar 8, 2024
BEL @ UNI
62 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.1% more
Northern Iowa: 8.3
vs
Belmont: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
Northern Iowa: 69.0%
vs
Belmont: 65.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+23.5% more
Belmont: 15.3
vs
Northern Iowa: 11.7
Blocks (L5)
+23.5% more
Belmont: 4.3
vs
Northern Iowa: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BEL Score
63.0
78
UNI Score
75.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 37.8
33.0 / 48.0
Assists
14.5 / 16.7
16.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 52.0
39.0 / 60.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 65.1
70.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 35.1
26.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.3 / 6.0
2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 15.3
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
UNI
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
BEL
UNI
BEL
ML
51%
18-17
47%
15-17
56%
19-15
62%
20-12
ATS
49%
17-18
56%
18-14
56%
19-15
62%
20-12
TTL
69%
24-11
44%
14-18
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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