Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Razorbacks @ Rebels ARK @ MISS

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

11-3  |  Road

94
FINAL
Wed, Jan 7 • 9:00 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

8-6  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
RAZORBACKS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Ole Miss)
RazorbacksARK (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Razorbacks Cover

30.9%

Rebels Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MISS -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

ARK By 1-7 points

18.6%

ARK By 8-14 points

8.0%

MISS By 1-7 points

27.2%

MISS By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
ARKANSAS
90
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
70
ARKANSAS
74
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 MISS @ ARK 90 - 93
Jan 7, 2026 ARK @ MISS 94 - 87
Mar 13, 2025 ARK @ MISS 80 - 83
Jan 8, 2025 MISS @ ARK 73 - 66
Jan 24, 2024 ARK @ MISS 51 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.7% more
Arkansas: 6.5 vs Ole Miss: 3.6
Assists (L5) +19.2% more
Arkansas: 15.6 vs Ole Miss: 12.6
Steals (L5) +14.9% more
Arkansas: 7.5 vs Ole Miss: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Arkansas: 41.1% vs Ole Miss: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 85.0 94
MISS Score 90.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 41.1 31.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.6 / 15.6 19.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.6 / 6.5 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 48.5 51.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 74.8 81.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 36.3 27.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.5 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 10.8 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
ARK
MISS
ARK
ML
48% 16-17
68% 25-12
52% 17-16
81% 25-6
ATS
61% 20-13
70% 26-11
52% 17-16
81% 25-6
TTL
64% 21-12
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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