MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
11-3 | Road
73
KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
9-5 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
TIGERS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
MIZ By 1-7 points
13.7%
MIZ By 8-14 points
4.8%
UK By 1-7 points
25.3%
UK By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Missouri
86
MISSOURI
Kentucky
94
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Missouri
69
MISSOURI
Kentucky
78
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UK @ MIZ
78 - 72
Jan 7, 2026
MIZ @ UK
73 - 68
Mar 8, 2025
UK @ MIZ
91 - 83
Jan 9, 2024
MIZ @ UK
77 - 90
Dec 28, 2022
UK @ MIZ
75 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.9% more
Kentucky: 5.0
vs
Missouri: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+28.0% more
Kentucky: 15.0
vs
Missouri: 11.7
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Kentucky: 7.5
vs
Missouri: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.0%
Kentucky: 73.4%
vs
Missouri: 64.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score
86.0
73
UK Score
94.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 34.6
39.0 / 35.0
Assists
15.0 / 11.7
16.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.0 / 3.2
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 45.3
43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 64.4
71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 32.9
31.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 11.3
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
MIZ
UK
MIZ
ML
71%
25-10
61%
20-13
72%
23-9
69%
22-10
ATS
83%
29-6
70%
23-10
72%
23-9
69%
22-10
TTL
63%
22-13
79%
26-7
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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