INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
11-3 | Road
84
MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
7-7 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
TERRAPINS
100%
HOOSIERS
--
TERRAPINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
189.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MD +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)
IU By 1-7 points
26.2%
IU By 8-14 points
25.3%
MD By 1-7 points
15.3%
MD By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
98
INDIANA
Maryland
91
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
70
INDIANA
Maryland
73
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Terrapins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Terrapins (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Terrapins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 189.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 7, 2026
IU @ MD
84 - 66
Jan 26, 2025
MD @ IU
79 - 78
Mar 3, 2024
IU @ MD
83 - 78
Dec 1, 2023
MD @ IU
53 - 65
Mar 10, 2023
MD @ IU
60 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+38.1% more
Indiana: 16.3
vs
Maryland: 10.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.7%
Indiana: 47.5%
vs
Maryland: 36.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Indiana: 37.3%
vs
Maryland: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
Indiana: 78.9%
vs
Maryland: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
98.0
84
MD Score
91.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 37.3
19.0 / 32.0
Assists
10.1 / 16.3
7.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.0 / 1.9
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
36.8 / 47.5
41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 78.9
65.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 36.7
33.0 / 41.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.1
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 10.0
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
MD
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
IU
MD
IU
ML
70%
23-10
66%
21-11
67%
22-11
71%
22-9
ATS
64%
21-12
53%
17-15
67%
22-11
71%
22-9
TTL
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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